Foreign ministers from across Southeast Asia and beyond convened in Manila on Tuesday for the 59th ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting, a three-day gathering that puts some of the world's most pressing conflicts under diplomatic scrutiny. The Philippines holds ASEAN's rotating chairmanship this year and is hosting the talks, which bring together delegations from the United States, China, Russia, and the European Union.

ASEAN — the Association of Southeast Asian Nations — is an 11-member regional bloc whose annual ministerial meetings have long served as one of the few forums where rival great powers sit in the same room. This year, the stakes are particularly high.

Iran Conflict Tops the Agenda

According to the Associated Press, ASEAN foreign ministers plan to issue a joint statement expressing alarm over renewed US-Iran hostilities and calling on both sides to return to talks. The fighting has again raised fears over shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which roughly 20 percent of global oil supplies transited before the conflict escalated.

“"When you have two big, powerful countries like the United States and China, there are always going to be irritants, there are always going to be things we don't agree on." — US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking in Washington before departing for Manila.”

Rubio's presence in Manila carries its own symbolic weight. Washington has used the visit to reaffirm its commitment to the region's stability. State Department spokesperson Thomas Pigott described the trip as advancing "a clear US priority: a free and open Indo-Pacific." On the sidelines, Rubio is also expected to attend a meeting of the Quad — the security grouping of the US, India, Japan, and Australia — which Beijing has consistently criticised as a mechanism for containing Chinese influence.

Myanmar Diplomacy at a Crossroads

Myanmar's military government, which seized power from the elected administration of Aung San Suu Kyi in a 2021 coup, remains formally barred from ASEAN's top-level gatherings. Since that coup, more than 8,100 people have been killed in the country's civil war and nearly 22,500 remain in detention, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners. A five-point peace plan agreed by ASEAN leaders in 2021 has made no meaningful progress, largely because Myanmar's military has refused to comply with it.

In an effort to break the deadlock, Philippine Foreign Secretary Theresa Lazaro, acting as ASEAN's special envoy, met Myanmar's foreign minister in Bangkok earlier this month — the first such encounter in five years. Rights organisations were critical of the move, arguing it effectively rewarded the generals without extracting any concessions. Lazaro pushed back, insisting the Bangkok meeting was consistent with the 2021 peace framework.

“"It was not and should not be mischaracterized as an abandonment of the five-point consensus." — Philippine Foreign Secretary Theresa Lazaro.”

South China Sea Code Still Unresolved

ASEAN ministers are also scheduled to meet Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to discuss progress on a proposed 'code of conduct' for the South China Sea — a set of rules intended to prevent territorial disputes from spiralling into direct conflict. The South China Sea is contested by China, Taiwan, and four ASEAN members: Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam. Confrontations between Chinese and Philippine coast guard vessels have grown sharper in recent years, making the code's conclusion an increasingly urgent priority for the region.

Ukraine's foreign minister, Andrii Sybiha, has been invited to Manila, but only to attend a Friday ceremony marking the 50th anniversary of ASEAN's 1976 Treaty of Amity and Cooperation — a foundational nonaggression pact. He is not participating in the main ministerial meetings where Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will be present, and no meeting between the two has been announced.

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