India has become the single largest driver of a global surge in new coal mine proposals, according to a report by the US-based research group Global Energy Monitor (GEM), even as demand for the fossil fuel is projected to level off by the end of the decade.

GEM's Global Coal Mine Tracker identified 837 coal mine proposals worldwide, worth 2,521 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of new capacity. That is an 11% increase on 2024 and is largely down to one country. India's planned coal mine capacity nearly doubled last year, rising to 638 Mtpa from 329 Mtpa, according to the report, cited by Reuters and the Guardian.

Jharkhand and Odisha lead the charge

The bulk of India's new proposals are concentrated in two eastern states, Jharkhand and Odisha, the country's leading coal-producing regions. Proposed mine projects in these states doubled over the year, GEM found, in line with a push from India's ministry of coal to expand domestic output.

India's government is targeting coal production of nearly 1.15 billion tonnes for the 2025-26 fiscal year, rising to 1.5 billion tonnes by 2030. More than 20 new mines, with a combined capacity of over 80 Mtpa, are planned to begin operating soon, according to the report. Officials have pointed to rising electricity demand, driven partly by increasingly severe heatwaves and continued economic growth, as the rationale for the expansion.

“India's proposed coal mine capacity rose to 638 million metric tons per annum from 329 mtpa a year earlier, accounting for almost all of the growth in the global coal project pipeline, which expanded 11% to 2,521 mtpa.”

A global picture of contrasts

The expansion in India stands in contrast to trends elsewhere. Newly-opened coal mine capacity worldwide fell by nearly 40% in 2025 to 113 Mtpa, the lowest annual total in a decade, GEM reported. This was driven largely by sharp declines in China, where new mine openings fell 44%, and Australia, where they collapsed by 96%. China, India, Australia and Russia together still account for the overwhelming majority of the world's proposed coal pipeline, with China alone responsible for more than half.

GEM warned that the rise in proposed capacity, much of it still in early planning and vulnerable to cancellation, sits awkwardly alongside forecasts from the International Energy Agency (IEA), which expects global coal demand to plateau and then decline gradually by 2030. The IEA has also reported that wind and solar overtook coal in the global electricity mix for the first time in 2025.

For European readers, the divergence underscores a wider tension in the global energy transition. While the EU has largely phased down domestic coal use and continues to invest heavily in renewables, countries such as India argue that rapid electrification and industrial growth require continued reliance on cheap, domestically available coal, even as the economics of new mining projects face growing long-term uncertainty.

GEM cautioned that India's rapid build-up in planned capacity could leave mine developers and investors exposed if global coal demand weakens faster than currently projected, a risk that will be watched closely by financial institutions and climate campaigners alike.

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