Bill Gates, the Microsoft co-founder who has spent years championing artificial intelligence as a force for good, has published an essay warning that the technology now threatens to destabilise societies unless leaders act quickly. The nearly 6,000-word piece, titled ‘The turbulent AI era is here. The choices we make now are critical,’ appeared on his blog Gates Notes and was shared in advance with outlets including Fortune.
The essay marks a notable shift in tone from a figure previously seen as a staunch AI optimist. Gates, who also chairs the Gates Foundation, argues that AI’s outcome is not predetermined but depends on decisions made in the near term.
AI will either be the greatest equalizer ever invented, or the worst source of injustice.
Jobs, security and children’s development at risk
According to the essay, AI could erase entire categories of jobs, supercharge fraud and deepfakes, lower the barrier for cyberattacks on critical infrastructure, and make it easier to engineer dangerous new diseases. Gates also warns the technology could let governments authorise lethal action without human decision-makers, and could change how children grow up and learn.
He points to a preliminary survey suggesting heavier AI use correlates with reduced critical thinking, an effect he says is more pronounced among young people. ‘Ironically, the same tool that will allow people to learn more than ever could also lead to many people learning less,’ he writes.
Right now, we are not preparing for it. I see no evidence that leaders, experts, or societies are adequately confronting these challenges.
New institutions, ‘Human Reserved’ jobs and a tax on robots
Gates argues that no existing government agency was built to handle a technology that simultaneously touches employment, security, healthcare, energy and elections. He calls for new domestic and international bodies to manage the transition, describing the task as ‘monumental.’
He also proposes the concept of ‘Human Reserved’ jobs, roles such as elder care and delivering serious medical diagnoses that would be deliberately kept for humans even where AI or robots could technically perform them. Alongside this, he renewed his long-standing call to tax AI systems and robots, aiming to offset declining payroll tax revenue as automation spreads. Gates acknowledged that economists have criticised the idea as economically inefficient but said the priority is preserving employment and its social value.
Gates plans to press the case directly with lawmakers in Washington, and his staff are working to arrange a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping around November to discuss global efforts to mitigate AI risks. The two last met three years ago, when Gates became the first foreign entrepreneur Xi hosted after the COVID-19 pandemic began.
A private-public gap in Silicon Valley
In a related interview reported by the New York Times, Gates said AI company executives are privately ‘very worried’ about the disruption their products could cause but publicly downplay those risks to protect fundraising and planned stock listings.
Gates also addressed his past association with Jeffrey Epstein, calling it a ‘huge mistake’ driven by a desire to raise funds, and said he hopes the ties will not undermine his current arguments on AI. He compared his earlier reluctance to speak publicly on the subject to periods when the Microsoft antitrust trial and his divorce from Melinda French Gates limited what he felt able to say.
You have the opportunity to act now, before unemployment spikes sharply, before societies begin to suffer, before public trust erodes.
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