A single company in the Dutch city of Veldhoven makes the machines without which the world's most advanced computer chips cannot exist. That company, ASML, has spent the past year watching its stock price more than double, its order books fill beyond capacity, and a stream of analysts begin asking a question that would have sounded fanciful not long ago: could a European technology firm become the world's first trillion-dollar company outside the United States?
The numbers from ASML's second-quarter results, published on 16 July, gave that question renewed force. The company reported Q2 net sales of €9.33 billion and net income of €2.92 billion, both comfortably above analyst estimates according to LSEG data. It then raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance for the second time this year, to between €43 billion and €45 billion — a 16% increase at the midpoint from its previous forecast of €36–40 billion. Its market capitalisation now sits at around $700 billion, according to data from multiple financial trackers, making it Europe's most valuable company.
The only machine that matters
ASML's leverage over the global chip industry stems from a position that no competitor has come close to replicating. The company is the world's sole producer of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems: machines that use light with a wavelength just 13.5 nanometres long to etch circuit patterns onto silicon wafers at a level of precision unmatched by any other technology. Without EUV, chipmakers such as TSMC, Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron and Intel cannot manufacture the most advanced semiconductors powering today's AI systems, smartphones and data centres. A single standard EUV machine costs in the region of $200 million. ASML's newer High-NA EUV systems, which print even finer patterns, cost up to $400 million each.
The AI infrastructure boom has turned that monopoly into a compounding advantage. AI chip makers are racing to expand capacity, and each new fabrication plant requires a fresh batch of ASML machines. CEO Christophe Fouquet described order intake as "extremely strong" in the first half of the year, with customers accelerating capacity expansion plans. ASML says it is planning to increase its own production capacity by 30% for 2027 and is investigating a further 30% increase for 2028 to keep pace.
“"Blowout results across the board — I wonder where they found this much new capacity." — Michael Roeg, senior equity analyst at Degroof Petercam”
A technology milestone adds to the momentum
Alongside its earnings release, ASML confirmed a significant technical milestone: Intel Foundry has become the first company in the world to ship a high-volume logic product manufactured using High-NA EUV lithography. The chips in question are Intel's Core Ultra Series 3 processors, built on its Intel 18A process. High-NA EUV uses a higher numerical aperture than standard EUV systems, allowing chipmakers to print smaller features and enabling production of chips below the two-nanometre threshold. TSMC, the world's largest contract chipmaker, has said it plans to delay High-NA adoption due to cost concerns, with industry analysts expecting its uptake around 2029. Samsung, by contrast, is targeting the technology for its 2nm process in 2026, giving ASML a broadening base of High-NA customers.
Analysts at several major investment banks lifted their price targets sharply after the results, with Deutsche Bank raising its target to €2,150 and JPMorgan moving to $2,400. ING analyst Marc Hesselink said ASML "can surely be" Europe's first trillion-dollar firm. Analysts at Barclays, Susquehanna and Bernstein see upside of roughly 49% from mid-July share prices, which would carry the company past the $1 trillion threshold if delivered. An additional potential revenue stream has also emerged: a new Terafab semiconductor plant planned by Elon Musk in Texas, intended to supply SpaceX and Tesla, represents a fresh source of demand for ASML's equipment.
China risk casts a shadow
The most substantial obstacle to that valuation milestone is geopolitical. China was ASML's largest single market in 2025, accounting for 33% of total revenue. That share has already compressed sharply: ASML has never been permitted to ship EUV machines to China due to US-led and Dutch export restrictions, and its sales of more advanced deep ultraviolet (DUV) tools to the country have also been curtailed. The company now expects Chinese customers to account for around 20% of sales in 2026. But the proposed MATCH Act, introduced in the US Senate by a bipartisan group of lawmakers in April 2026, would go further, potentially banning the export of all DUV immersion lithography systems to China and restricting ASML's lucrative servicing contracts on equipment already installed there. The bill still needs to pass both chambers of Congress and receive a presidential signature, but its existence has rattled investors.
“"ASML's moat hasn't been breached, but its China revenue just got a lot riskier." — Motley Fool analysis, April 2026”
Even so, analysts point to structural reasons why ASML can grow regardless of what happens in China. Memory chipmakers including SK Hynix, Samsung and Micron are shifting production from older processes that rely on ASML's less-expensive DUV tools toward newer EUV systems, creating what Summit Insights Group analyst Kinngai Chan has called a profitable "upgrade cycle" that does not depend on Chinese demand. Antoine Hucher of Aviva Investors told Reuters that if ASML executed well and AI demand held up, the company would continue to grow, though nothing was certain. For now, the AI boom is showing few signs of slowing, and the machines needed to sustain it are made in only one place.
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