Nvidia, the American chipmaker at the centre of the artificial intelligence investment boom, has issued a rare forecast projecting 70% revenue growth for its fiscal year 2028, which ends in January of that year. The figure is well above the roughly 44% growth that Wall Street analysts had modelled, according to Fortune, and implies revenue of $690 billion to $700 billion, more than $100 billion above prior analyst expectations.
The disclosure, made during Wednesday’s earnings call, is unusual for a company that has historically avoided guiding investors so far in advance. ‘We’ve never forecast or never guided to a year in advance,’ chief executive Jensen Huang said, according to The National.
Quarterly results beat expectations
The forecast came alongside second-quarter results that more than doubled year-on-year. Revenue for the three months ended 26 July reached $96.22 billion, a 106% increase, beating analyst estimates of about $92.17 billion, according to the Jakarta Post. Adjusted profit came in at $2.22 per share, above the $2.10 analysts had expected.
Huang said customer demand for Nvidia’s AI chips is growing at around 100%, and chief financial officer Colette Kress said demand from AI research labs will make up roughly a quarter of the company’s business next year. ‘AI has reached its inflection point. It’s doing useful work. Its tokens are productive and profitable. Now, compute is revenue,’ Huang said.
Financing deals draw scrutiny
Nvidia has increasingly financed deals with smaller ‘neocloud’ AI providers, guaranteeing payment for a minimum share of data centre capacity in exchange for a cut of rental revenue above that threshold. Critics have questioned whether such arrangements, alongside Nvidia’s direct investments in companies like Anthropic, create risky interdependencies across the AI industry, sometimes described as circular financing.
We recognize the scale of this support, and we know some will call this circular financing. We see it differently.
Kress argued the arrangements were sound. ‘We believe these investments, measured against the strength of their demand, the business they create for us, the ecosystem they build on Nvidia’s platform, and the equity returns on our invested capital will be excellent, and our risk is limited,’ she said, according to Fortune. She added that independent capital ‘still underwrites every deal on its own merits.’
China remains excluded from guidance
Nvidia again forecast no revenue from AI computing chip sales in China, even as Beijing has begun allowing limited quantities of the company’s H200 processors into the country. ByteDance and Tencent each reportedly received around 10,000 units in recent weeks, according to Daily Sabah, though the shipments remain modest relative to Nvidia’s overall business.
The company also flagged supply constraints, including shortages of memory components and rising memory prices, which it said would weigh on margins and limit how quickly it can expand output. Executives outlined plans to ramp up next-generation Vera Rubin processors and expand sales to AI labs including OpenAI.
Nvidia’s market capitalisation now exceeds $5 trillion, making it the world’s most valuable company. Shares initially dipped more than 1% in extended trading before rising nearly 5% as investors digested the forecast. Not everyone is convinced the growth story alone will settle concerns about the industry’s financing structures. ‘Even extraordinary growth can fail to satisfy investors as scrutiny of AI spending and its financing intensifies,’ said Jacob Bourne, an analyst at eMarketer.
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